Utilizing 60-game stats in a 162-game world: A Peta Perspective

Home » Blog » Baseball » Utilizing 60-game stats in a 162-game world: A Peta Perspective

Convert 60 to 162? 162 to 60? Consult the entrails of a goat?

First, the number of kind and thoughtful responses to my January FanGraphs Community article “Applying Peta’s Wagering Methodology in 2020” was very gratifying, including a note from the Godfather himself, Joe Peta. Several responses centered around the very reasonable question of how to apply 2020’s 60-game stats to projecting team wins in the upcoming 162-game season.

A quick recap, with free time on my hands thanks to COVID, in 2020 I operationalized the baseball methodology outlined in Joe Peta’s groundbreaking 2013 book Trading Bases, which I named BettorUpMLB. Modelling 507 MLB games in 2020 produced an overall win percentage of 49% and a profit of 9%.

The Peta methodology is based on the utilization of a team’s previous season performance, adjusted for “cluster luck” ( I use FG BaseRuns) and the year-over-year difference between a team’s previous and projected FG WARs. Peta’s work produces two products: a season-long projection of wins and the ability to handicap individual games through daily adjustments to each team’s lineup, starting pitcher, and home field.

The 2020 adjustment

I started by looking back to last June to refresh my memory as to how I addressed the change in season length. FanGraphs (FG) had taken the team WARs it created for the original 162-game season and essentially cut them down to reflect a 60-game season (i.e. 162 WAR *.37).

2020 season: 162 to 60

In developing my 2020 team win projections, I took the revised 60-game team FG WARs, converted them back to the 162-game level, eventually arriving at a team win percentage that I multiplied by 60 games. Consider the case of the Phillies:

  • 60 game projected FG WAR (as of 7/22/2020) – 7.6
    • Converted to 162- games (7.6*2.7) – 20.52
    • Repeating the process for SPs and RPs (15.1) nets us a total 162-game team WAR of 35.6
  • Running those numbers through the BettorUpMLB model resulted in a win % of .5; normalized in a 60-game season to 29.3
    • Note: in 2020 the Phillies won 28 games (.467)

The Peta approach demands comparing like-to-like, so inflate 2020 actual WARs or deflate 2021 projected WARs – pick your poison! The change in wins per team between the two approaches ranged from +1.3 (Reds) to –1.6 (Rays). Given my experience last season, I personally feel more comfortable deflating 2021 projected team WARs to 60 games to compare with 2020 actual and, like in 2020, address the uncertainties through conservative wagering.

2020 Issues

Though the calculation was straightforward, recall in the runup to the 2020 season there was plenty of discussion about the impact of a 60-game schedule on teams, and for fantasy players, the accuracy of individual WARs. ESPN baseball analysts discussed which teams might be best suited to a 60-game season, presciently noting the National were among those most likely to be impacted. On the player side, Phillies Nation looked at the first 60 games of each of Bryce Harper’s nine season. And as I mentioned in my last blog, there was a lot of discussion about the varied strength of schedules resulting from the need to minimize each team’s travel.

I decided in the end the worst thing I could do is “start thinking for myself” and did not tinker with the BettorUpMLB model. Instead, I addressed uncertainty via the wagering cycle, limiting wagers to teams with the greatest spreads between the BettorUpMLB projected season wins and the sportsbooks.

Conservative wagering did well, as you saw in my previous article, eight wagers resulted in seven wins and a profit of 65%.

The 2021 season – now it gets problematic

As we approach the beginning of the 2021 season, we are again faced with the challenge of comparing like-to-like. The question is:

  • Will we will take 2020’s actual 60-game FG WARs, convert them to 162-game equivalents and utilize them to compare with FGs projected 2021 stats? (Inflating)
  • Or conversely, take FG’s 2021 team WARs, reduce them to 60-games equivalents and compare them with the 2020 60 game FG actual team WARs? (Deflating)
  • Or is there another way yet still?

1) Converting 2020 actual WARs to a 162

Again,consider the case of the Phillies (as of 2.12.2021):

  • 2020 60 game Phillies FG WAR  – 6.9
    • Converted to 162- games (6.9*2.7) – 18.63
    • Repeating the process for SPs and RPs (16.74) nets us a total 162-game 2020 team WAR of 35.4
  • Running those numbers through the Peta process results in a win % of .46; normalized in a 162-game season to 76 wins

Will the Phillies do better than 76 wins? I don’t know but it does demonstrate that simply re-signing last season’s star players (JT and Didi) and adding a couple of bullpen arms only takes you so far.

2) Converting 2021 projected FG WARs to 60 games

  • 2021 162 game Phillies projected FG WAR—17.4
    • Converted to 60-games (17.4*.37) – 6.4
    • Repeating the process for SPs and RPs (5.1) nets us a total 60-game 2021 team WAR of 11.6
  • Running those numbers through the Peta process results in a win % of .46; normalized in a 162-game season to 76 wins

3) Is there another way?

I was particularly uncomfortable with the idea of inflating 2020 team WARs to reflect a 162- game season. As a result, I also looked at the average change year-over-year over the last two seasons (2021 stats as of 2.12.2021). Categories are Batting, SP and RP:

Average Actual 2019 WAR19.011.33.0
2020 Proj WAR19.812.93.1
20 vs 190.81.50.1
% 20 vs 19104%114%104%
    
Inflated average 2020 WAR (60 to 162)18.9510.93.45
Average 2021 Proj WAR17.1411.82.28
21 vs 20-1.80.9-1.2
% 21 vs 2090%109%66%

For the 2020 season (top chart), the comparison between WARs showed an increase year-over-year between the 2020 projected and the 2019 actual WARs. By contrast, the comparison between 2021 and 2020 (inflated to 162) shows a decrease. Is the decrease because adjusting 2020 WARs to reflect a 162-game season overstates the 2020 60-game statistics?  Would adjusting team WARs to account for it make much of an impact to projected wins?

To answer this question, I ran a 2021 projection of team wins and compared it to one where I reduced the 2020 actual WARs to reflect the difference in spread between the previous season’s actual and projected WARs. I took each team’s 2020 actual hitting WAR, for example, and reduced it by 1.8 points. I also ran what I call a “midpoint” projection, adding together each team’s actual 2019 and 2020 FG WARs and dividing by two.  Selected results:

TeamUnadjusted WinsReducedMidpoint
Braves9998100
Padres9394106
Red Sox828172
White Sox8889103

As you see, deflating the 2020 WAR stats did not appreciably move the needle. And the strangeness of some of the “midpoint” results made me question the approach. I discovered that huge improvements (or cratering) in team WARs between seasons distorted the projected 2021 season results.

Other 2021 issues

Beyond the issue of adjusting team WARs there are other factors to consider, including the unbalanced 2020 scheduling and performance of players impacted by COVID. Is it even possible to address those secondary issues? Trying to tackle those issues becomes even more subjective.

The BettorUpMLB 2021 approach

The Peta approach demands comparing like-to-like, so inflate 2020 actual WARs or deflate 2021 projected WARs – pick your poison! The change in wins per team between the two approaches ranged from +1.3 (Reds) to –1.6 (Rays).

Given my experience last season, I personally feel more comfortable deflating 2021 projected team WARs to 60 games to compare with 2020 actual and, like last season, address the uncertainties through conservative wagering.

Recall, Peta suggests that in a 162-game season win totals deviating from the Vegas line by more than four games in either direction represent “unrepeatable results” and therefore are worth a wager. In the 2020 60-game season that translated into a difference of 1.5. In applying the model to wagering though, in 2020 I only looked at teams where the difference in spread was greater than two.

DraftKings has just released its first win projections for the 2021 season. As we get deeper into Spring Training, we will look applying the BettorUpMLB model to our wagering.

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