A work in progress
The original goal behind BettorUpMLB.com was to provide sports fans with a complete look at every baseball game. A single page on the BettorUpMLB.com website – the Daily Grind – is intended to be the one place to bring it all together including; win forecast, comparison to the moneyline (expressed as win %), identifying possible plays based on the difference between the two, and wager recommendations strictly guided by the perceived advantage and size of bankroll.
And while that is still the goal, reality has a way of getting in the way. For example, the cumbersome logistics of posting website pages (well for me at least). But by far the biggest hurdle is the fact major league managers do not post their lineups in a manner convenient to my schedule.
The best way to get the information out to you as fast as possible is via Twitter at our handle, @bettorupm. It does require a little work from you in order to take full advantage of the BettorUpMLB methodology. So, let’s walk through how to apply the information at @bettorupm.
Effectively using @bettorupm
What you will see at @bettorupm is each team’s chances of winning today’s matchup based on use of the BettorupMLB.com model, adjusted each day to reflect the pitching matchups and lineups. For a detailed discussion of the how that number is derived each day, I refer you to this earlier blog posting.
While the information on @bettorupm is a good start, its effective use requires its comparison to the moneyline expressed in percentage terms. Let’s look at three games from April 22, 2021 and see how the BettorUpMLB numbers were utilized in conjunction with the FanDuel moneyline.
|4/22/2021||% to win||ML %||Dif||ML||Bet (bp)||Result|
First, note that the BettorUpMLB model always equals 100%. The sportsbook does not. FanDuel is typically around 104%. As I wrote previously, other sites will vary with GameBetDC being one of the greediest at 108%. As bettors, it means that not every game will be playable.
- In the first game, the model assigns the Reds a 60% chance to win the game, FanDuel puts it at 59%. This small perceived advantage generates a small wager, 10 basis points of bankroll (100 basis points = one percent of bankroll).
- The second game can be the most profitable but arguably hardest sometimes to wager on. The BettorUpMLB model disagrees with the FanDuel estimate, making the Pirates the favorite over the Tigers. The advantage being larger than the first game – so is the wager- at 20bp.
- Finally, while FanDuel see the Yankees-Indians game as a tossup, the BettorUpMLB model does not, making the Yankees the favorite. Wager size right on the edge of a 20bp or 40bp wager.
Bankroll management – the final piece of the puzzle
The result of these three games is at the core of the BettorUpMLB. This is a capital accrual methodology, like the stock market it gains or loses a little every day.
Money management is also critical to long-term success. Not all overlays are equal. In his groundbreaking 2013 book Trading Bases, Joe Peta offers a wager chart (below) addressing both the need to press the perceived advantage while constantly adjust the size of wagers based on current bankroll:
In closing, there are certain challenges in using the model. It is a capital accrual system, and while the model is adjusted every 30 games, it will not react to periods where the Yankees bats go cold or the As decide to rip off 12 wins in a row. In the former case, I ended up making money, the latter, the Baltimore massacre. And it will also give you wagers like these:
|4/20/2021||% to win||ML %||Dif||ML||Bet (bp)||Result|
Yes, there will be instances where you will be wagering on the underdog, because it’s less of an underdog than FanDuel thinks. And the godfather of BettorUpMLB, Joe Peta is right, it takes some fortitude. But overall it’s a conservative, fun way to approach baseball wagering.