Results and observations with 24 weeks to go
Despite my oft expressed concerns about utilizing 2020’s 60 game stats to project 2021’s 162 game season, two weeks in and we can say the @bettorupm Model is starting well. Though as all sports handicappers are well aware, a good start can be seemingly wiped out in as little as two days.
Stats through 4/16/2021:
- 378 games modeled
- 124 plays
- 59% win
- 20% ROI
The story so far
The BettorUpMLB model is still working from initial runs scored/runs allowed projections (adjusted for cluster luck) and FG WARs, so through two weeks it seemingly loves some teams and hates others regardless of actual records.
Two recent examples:
Despite the Diamondbacks and Nationals actual records, the Model has heavily favored the Nationals in all three of their games, including my sweating out a 50bp wager last night that the Nats won in extra-inning, walk off, fashion requiring heroic efforts by Max Scherzer et al.
And there is seemingly no situation where the Model doesn’t love the Dodgers. And given their record to date, that’s been quite profitable. But last night’s thriller of a game is indicative of many early season situations confronting the Model.
As readers know, BettorUpMLB is a capital accrual methodology utilizing a money management system based on the Kelly Criterion. In plain terms, the greater the advantage, the bigger the bet. 100bp wagers are rare, and as a result I looked deeper into the matchup of two top teams to see what would create such a huge disparity. Two words: Ryan Weathers.
We don’t know who Ryan Weathers will be, but right now the initial FG WAR doesn’t think very much. As a result, the huge Dodger advantage was driven by Weathers potential (or lack thereof). I recalculated last night using another Padres left hander, Blake Snell. The revised estimate saw the Dodgers win % dropping to 62% or a 10bp, not 100bp, wager.
The BettorUpMLB Model is not static, as the godfather, Joe Peta, advocated, it must be adjusted throughout the season to account for reality. That first adjustment will occur on May 1 when we fold in runs scored/allowed to date, and revised player FG WARs. The intent is to continue that on a monthly basis.
Finally, a word about the idiocy of state/local governments
No one was more excited than me when the District of Columbia announced it was deploying an online sports bet site. But like the old Wall Street adage, “Bulls and bears get rich but pigs get nothing,” the District managed to take a good thing and screw it up.
As you can see, GamebetDC’s vigorish is so high as to be problematic to anyone with a serious commitment to responsible wagering. I am happy to report the public has noticed. The handle at an onsite facility in downtown DC operated by William Hill draws far more action. So much action that the William Hill ap is now allowed to be utilized within a few blocks of the facility just to hold down the crowds. Others, like me, cross the river to Virginia to utilize the FanDuel ap.
Either way, greedy governments lose.