Outraged Twins fans and a BettorUpMLB Over/Under Update

Home » Blog » Baseball » Outraged Twins fans and a BettorUpMLB Over/Under Update

Miller Park

A recent @bettorupm tweet outraged @Twins nation (and delighted @WhiteSox fans) when, in responding to a question about the AL Central, we tweeted our current win projections:

Indians71.7
Royals74.2
Tigers61.2
Twins83.1
White Sox86.9

@Twins fan outrage seemed evenly divided along two lines, being behind the @WhiteSox and the temerity of projecting a mere 83 wins. As to the first objection, let BettorUpMLB simply note the assessment is in line with that of @draftkings and @fanduel.

The second objection, the relative paucity of wins, certainly justifies another look behind the numbers. Recall, the BettorUp model relies in part on WAR provided by @fangraphs. Simply put, while the @Twins WAR 2021 offense seems on par with the 2020 season, the @fangraphs 2021 pitching assessment sees a substantial drop off in starter/reliever WAR. Comparing the two teams head-to-head (and factoring in home field) also indicates a narrow @WhiteSox advantage:

Twins48%
White Sox52%

Interesting divisional match ups

This took us off in another direction, looking at other interesting divisional head-to-head match ups (again factoring in home field):

Padres37%
Dodgers63%
Jays47%
NYY53%
Angels46%
Astros54%
Nats/Mets42.5%
Braves57.5%
Brewers46%
Cards54%

So, @twins fan should take some heart from the fact the AL Central match up of top divisional contenders certainly represents the closest.

Updated Over/Under Plays

More important, let’s remember what we are trying to do here at BettorUpMLB. In this instance, what we refer to as “the long game,” is to identify significant deviations between the BettorUpMLB model and the sportsbooks. Last season BettorUpMLB identified eight such significant deviations resulting in seven wins and a profit of +65%.

We have already discussed the very significant concerns with utilizing 60 game stats to project a 162 game season. Our approach is similar to last year, be very conservative when applying the model to wagering, looking for the most significant outliers. Over 75% of the BettorUpMLB projections are well inside the envelope of comparison to the sportsbooks.

Our first over/under analysis was earlier in March. Free agent signings, injuries, playing time all result in constantly adjusting Fangraphs WAR, which in turn impacts BettorUpMLB projected wins. Here’s where we are two-weeks out:

UnderFanDuelMoney Line
Athletics86.5-110
Indians81.5-110
   
OverFanDuelMoney Line
Jays86.5-130
Braves91.5100
Dodgers103.5-110
Orioles64.5-110
Pirates59.5-110
  • Gone from last assessment: Reds, Rangers
  • New to assessment: Pirates

The Pirates join the list as an Over play. Behind the numbers indicates in 2020 there was a negative impact on the team attributed to cluster luck. In addition, while the FanGraphs WAR analysis still puts them dead last, the question is of degrees and maybe not 59.5 wins bad.  

Finally, note the Money Line moved on two teams. Early betting shifts the Over percentage on the Braves, decreasing it from 52.4% to 50%. Conversely, the Blue Jays Over number has moved from 52.4% to 56.5%.

18,373 comments

  287. In the document it was set to Picture Control: Picture Style: Colour. This preference was modifying paper sheets in areas adjoining the character (both vertically and horizontally).

    6. When I open the document in the TTF I got this message:

    Background:

    Figure 1

    Can someone please explain what figures are? I would appreciate it since it so I can learn more about it. Not sure if they work with PhotoShop Elements or Adobe Illustrator

    I am having https://www.quartersslc.com/profile/laulerehossalar/profile
    66cf4387b8 batgol

    Reply

  289. Here you can find the download link to the package that contains three images separated by.pdf files:

    Learn more about Scout, TIGER and Cloud 9 for your application icons, visit their pages to get more information on what they can do.Member Blogs

    Community Blogs

    Photo Gallery

    If the blog is black with no images, some sites, especially those with big JavaScript problems, cut off the top and won’t let you scroll. These are https://www.funkyfreshfoods.no/profile/perlhobbnorptanazchia/profile
    66cf4387b8 bensqwy

    Reply

  290. , erb template, as well as other modules.

    Download
    Collie Perl Shell Lite is available for different Linux and Microsoft platforms. The distribution package is freely available for download from Softonic’s website and can be easily installed from the terminal using the following commands:

    Copy and paste the following steps to install the Collie Perl Shell application to your Ubuntu box:

    Locate the downloaded.tar file using a file manager of your choice. For example, on Ubuntu file manager https://demoforextrading.com/nemetschek-allplan-2012-download-cracked/
    ec5d62056f quajan

    Reply

  291. Audio enthusiasts may find it too simple; it may not offer much more than that.

    …

    Details

    Mini MP3 is a small audio player that can be controlled via the system tray. It can be deployed on all Windows versions out there.

    Portable running mode
    You can drop the utility on USB flash drives or other portable devices and carry it with you all the time. Plus, you may run it without being an administrator.

    It is important to mention https://likesmeet.com/upload/files/2022/06/GXyJk5kfoyQJhQ7VutXR_04_b8b17f78cb7ed1d56b138260a4803e71_file.pdf
    ec5d62056f cheoly

    Reply

  292. BetterListView is a list view component that provides a robust visual editor and other list view techniques with the best alignment of data with the UI. It provides unsurpassed features such as auto completion, User control of text size, color, font, background, and other attributes, Split and merge list views as well as dynamic sorting and grouping.
    Because it is enhanced with “Fully interactive” or “Visual” choice lists, changing all cells in real-time, highlighting current options https://mangalamdesigner.com/koi-fish-3d-screensaver-2-0-keygen/
    ec5d62056f armhec

    Reply

  293. The best you can do is to try the registration process to see if it works.
    Ready to recover?
    The tool couldn’t find the content we had previously deleted from the iPhone, and this was the case with the files we had in Google Drive and iCloud. However, it succeeded at identifying other unknown data which we had known about for some time. This included texts messages from WhatsApp, call logs, photos, video files, and apps, as well as a magnet link. For more information https://www.ponuda24.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/bamtam.pdf
    ec5d62056f marrbeth

    Reply

  296. You can insert pictures, embed or use special smileys

    …program should connect to a server via TCP socket and send a message to them using TCP socket.
    Client should be coded in any of the below language:
    C (c#, c++, Objective-C)
    C#
    Java
    VB.net
    Delphi
    The client should be able to connect to a server using TCP socket. It should be able to send a message to other client using TCP socket https://myvideotoolbox.com/adobe-after-effects-cc-2018-15-0-0-180-cracked-keygen-new/
    ec5d62056f glafyll

    Reply

  297. Several key features differentiate this tool from existing alternatives and most importantly, they permit a better user experience. Features like federated collaboration, custom colors for tasks and projects, and the option to switch between workspaces without disturbing the existing work are part of the tool’s basic offering. Users also have the ability to share details about their changes and projects with and to other members. Further, visibility permissions dictate how every member can access to the data. However, the tool doesn’t only https://www.droptheleash.ca/2022/06/04/stereoscopic-player-1-9-3-64-bit/
    ec5d62056f nanyou

    Reply

  298. But its most impressive feature is the reason why most use them their catalog.
    To make certain your books catalogued, all you have to do is to import them that you have, at the home screen take advantage of the import function, remove the decision to describe your book, and the rest of the preparation is done directly in that room.
    In addition, with Liberone there are known the most used book categories and book character, so you do not need to search for all your books in https://csvcoll.org/portal/checklists/checklist.php?clid=7550
    ec5d62056f orrygian

    Reply

  300. Hotkeys can be assigned from the very first time you log on or at any time after installation, key configuration takes less than a minute.
    Complete and detailed tutorial on all available windows logons keys and how to configure them

    No need to go through the installation process again or plug-in your keyboard and change each time the computer boots up.
    It’s extremely efficient to resume computing and finish what you had been doing before and with time and Windows 7 license key, the possibilities are https://liquidonetransfer.com.mx/?p=1814
    ec5d62056f lumran

    Reply

  309. .
    As you can see, this tool may save you a lot of time and trouble.

    Comparing the Encoding Upgrade with the Standard Encoding

    Common sense tells us that there is a need to compare the standard encoding, which is the out of the box setting of the standard, the default, operating system or operating environment, with the encoding upgrade. When installed, the upgrade modification of files and the altering of file structures take place, however, they are hidden from our view https://purosautossandiego.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Metastream_Remote_for_Firefox.pdf
    50e0806aeb zlatap

    Reply

  310. Anime List Builder is available to download from its official page. It works only on Windows for now but is promised to become available on other platforms soon.
    You can find its official page here.

    Get it
    Looking for the tool on the Apple app store? You should search for Anime List Builder. The page for it may look like this: https://mandarininfo.com/sc4-mono-download-april-2022/
    50e0806aeb garsarg

    Reply

  311. Overall, Sudoku Generator is a full-featured and powerful yet compact application, which can be used in both Windows XP and Windows 7 platforms.
    Submitted by DAVID V. on 23 May 2012 – 17:01

    Open Source Sudoku Solver is a cross-platform utility that tests your Sudoku creative skill. The program is completely free, web-based and open source. As such, it is ideal for use on the go or from home. There is no https://wanoengineeringsystems.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/sanrang.pdf
    50e0806aeb unitrai

    Reply

  312. You must install this app before submitting a review.

    Google Play reviews now use Google+ so it’s easier to see opinions from people you care about. New reviews will be publicly linked to your Google+ profile. Your name on previous reviews now appears as “A Google User”.

    Google Play reviews now use Google+ so it’s easier to see opinions from people you care about. New reviews will be publicly linked to your Google+ profile. Your name on previous reviews now appears https://wakelet.com/wake/Ge1TC0k2YW5CgMc3vm0Zz
    50e0806aeb malyuzo

    Reply

  313. The application is not limited to a certain range of information; you can choose to save whatever data you want.
    The statistics will be displayed in a neat table format, and you can disable those options that you do not require or wish to continue to save permanently.

    Miscellaneous 2.8.1
    Remote access with the LAN-internet connection.
    Convert spreadsheet into HTML with results stored in TXT file.
    Adjust the number of times the Tracker will be checking for the http://empoderamientodelospueblosoriginariosac.com/?p=2312
    50e0806aeb talyitz

    Reply

  314. Q:

    How to observe an object over wired QML fields

    In my app I can observe a QProperty in C++ by using qtquick.qmlTypes but that is a little foreign to me. I have a component (let’s say: Button) and I would like to observe a boolean property in my.qml file for that button component. I know that I can observe properties if they are over QML fields, but that doesn’t seem to work https://www.cch2.org/portal/checklists/checklist.php?clid=6982
    50e0806aeb reennive

    Reply

  315. For both PC and Mac, it allows you to watch movies, photos, Web pages, videos, games, or TV shows on the internet and local disk and create your own slideshows.  HD video formats are supported, including H.264, x.264 and MPEG-4 format. 
    Omni Viewer Standard lets you play DVDs and convert them for Mac and PC.  It offers a lot of carefully selected transition effects and effects of the brightness of video frames https://mugvn.s3.amazonaws.com/upload/files/2022/06/oaPlFe5mFyiKEsh8tI2J_06_32454d91b3c4a17691a16af902f290b1_file.pdf
    50e0806aeb harrtamm

    Reply

  316. However, an app trying to act as a MIDI sequencer, with hardly any more features than what’s mentioned above, should not be taken into account.

    Send a link to your friends!The best apps of the weekAndroid, iOS, Tablets, WearableReviewed by Vivek MishraLast week’s anaysis of heart rate monitors stated that the usability of these appa on the go has more to do with your usage and habits. However, each app https://peritajesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/yusarm.pdf
    50e0806aeb quitfaus

    Reply

  317. What’s New:
    – It’s now possible to add notes for each phonetic transcription.
    Express Scribe can help typists with their performance and transcription process. It can help you save time and money in transcriptions, which is nice if you are a freelancer or own your own company.
    It can manage audio recordings, memos, private notes or almost any type of text. That’s why it’s very useful for all the users.
    Express Scribe is a useful software https://sbrelo.com/upload/files/2022/06/OAiVkRc5F3HIrcLAoWev_06_6a27a825df26b435edb56251cc378536_file.pdf
    50e0806aeb alaizym

    Reply

  318. After installing the Python Computer Graphics Kit, you can easily create 3D images based on Python classes.
    The Python Computer Graphics Kit provides an OpenGL library that abstracts the details of graphics rendering. You can use this library to easily render 2D and 3D graphics images.
    A high quality Lidar data can be loaded into your Python application directly and processed at any time without requiring any programming interface. The Lidar data is also used with the built-in Python functions to create point https://fitadina.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/wiledm.pdf
    50e0806aeb navkaar

    Reply

  319. Recover Data from Deleted Windows System Partitions! Bring back lost partitions in a matter of seconds!

    Would you like to recover deleted or corrupted Windows system partitions? Most of us probably have first-hand experience how Windows OS partitions can sometimes act unpredictably. Windows OS partitions may lose their order (by turning into unreadable holes) or become too corrupted to open on your computer, making data recovery impossible.
    We’ve all heard of these common data loss problems and everyone has http://epicphotosbyjohn.com/?p=1724
    50e0806aeb daicgab

    Reply

  320. Recover Data from Deleted Windows System Partitions! Bring back lost partitions in a matter of seconds!

    Would you like to recover deleted or corrupted Windows system partitions? Most of us probably have first-hand experience how Windows OS partitions can sometimes act unpredictably. Windows OS partitions may lose their order (by turning into unreadable holes) or become too corrupted to open on your computer, making data recovery impossible.
    We’ve all heard of these common data loss problems and everyone has http://epicphotosbyjohn.com/?p=1724
    50e0806aeb daicgab

    Reply

  581. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave
    it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed.

    There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back!

    LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

    Reply

  604. Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an really long comment but
    after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up.
    Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say
    excellent blog!

    Reply

  622. Great beat ! I would like to apprentice whilst
    you amend your site, how can i subscribe for a blog website?
    The account helped me a applicable deal. I had been tiny bit
    familiar of this your broadcast offered vivid transparent idea

    Reply