Outraged Twins fans and a BettorUpMLB Over/Under Update

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Miller Park

A recent @bettorupm tweet outraged @Twins nation (and delighted @WhiteSox fans) when, in responding to a question about the AL Central, we tweeted our current win projections:

Indians71.7
Royals74.2
Tigers61.2
Twins83.1
White Sox86.9

@Twins fan outrage seemed evenly divided along two lines, being behind the @WhiteSox and the temerity of projecting a mere 83 wins. As to the first objection, let BettorUpMLB simply note the assessment is in line with that of @draftkings and @fanduel.

The second objection, the relative paucity of wins, certainly justifies another look behind the numbers. Recall, the BettorUp model relies in part on WAR provided by @fangraphs. Simply put, while the @Twins WAR 2021 offense seems on par with the 2020 season, the @fangraphs 2021 pitching assessment sees a substantial drop off in starter/reliever WAR. Comparing the two teams head-to-head (and factoring in home field) also indicates a narrow @WhiteSox advantage:

Twins48%
White Sox52%

Interesting divisional match ups

This took us off in another direction, looking at other interesting divisional head-to-head match ups (again factoring in home field):

Padres37%
Dodgers63%
Jays47%
NYY53%
Angels46%
Astros54%
Nats/Mets42.5%
Braves57.5%
Brewers46%
Cards54%

So, @twins fan should take some heart from the fact the AL Central match up of top divisional contenders certainly represents the closest.

Updated Over/Under Plays

More important, let’s remember what we are trying to do here at BettorUpMLB. In this instance, what we refer to as “the long game,” is to identify significant deviations between the BettorUpMLB model and the sportsbooks. Last season BettorUpMLB identified eight such significant deviations resulting in seven wins and a profit of +65%.

We have already discussed the very significant concerns with utilizing 60 game stats to project a 162 game season. Our approach is similar to last year, be very conservative when applying the model to wagering, looking for the most significant outliers. Over 75% of the BettorUpMLB projections are well inside the envelope of comparison to the sportsbooks.

Our first over/under analysis was earlier in March. Free agent signings, injuries, playing time all result in constantly adjusting Fangraphs WAR, which in turn impacts BettorUpMLB projected wins. Here’s where we are two-weeks out:

UnderFanDuelMoney Line
Athletics86.5-110
Indians81.5-110
   
OverFanDuelMoney Line
Jays86.5-130
Braves91.5100
Dodgers103.5-110
Orioles64.5-110
Pirates59.5-110
  • Gone from last assessment: Reds, Rangers
  • New to assessment: Pirates

The Pirates join the list as an Over play. Behind the numbers indicates in 2020 there was a negative impact on the team attributed to cluster luck. In addition, while the FanGraphs WAR analysis still puts them dead last, the question is of degrees and maybe not 59.5 wins bad.  

Finally, note the Money Line moved on two teams. Early betting shifts the Over percentage on the Braves, decreasing it from 52.4% to 50%. Conversely, the Blue Jays Over number has moved from 52.4% to 56.5%.

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