Cold snowy days here in our nation’s capital, combined with the owners and players seeming determination to kill the golden goose, provides an opportunity to look at the hot stove (pre-lockout) through the lens of the Peta methodology. The Peta Methodology For those unfamiliar with the Peta methodology, I refer you to this deeper dive… Continue reading A Peta Perspective on the Hot Stove…So Far
Category: Wagering
BettorUpMLB 2021: At the quarter pole
Every quarter (40 games) the BettorUpMLB model is updated to account for games played (adjusted for baseruns) and adjusted player WARs. Let’s look at how the Model performed in individual games in 1Q2021 and the adjusted season win totals. Individual games: Number of games modeled: 435 Games resulting in bets: 276 (61%) Wins: 163 (59%)… Continue reading BettorUpMLB 2021: At the quarter pole
Using BettorUpMLB In Real Time
A work in progress The original goal behind BettorUpMLB.com was to provide sports fans with a complete look at every baseball game. A single page on the BettorUpMLB.com website – the Daily Grind – is intended to be the one place to bring it all together including; win forecast, comparison to the moneyline (expressed as… Continue reading Using BettorUpMLB In Real Time
2021 MLB Total Team Wins
Final bearings…Shoot! Time to stop talking about numbers and walk up to the window. I’ve written before about the challenges to the Peta methodology posed by applying 60-game season stats to a 162-game season. Better mathematicians than me out there (and that includes virtually everyone reading this) can put forth various legitimate ways to tinker… Continue reading 2021 MLB Total Team Wins
Outraged Twins fans and a BettorUpMLB Over/Under Update
A recent @bettorupm tweet outraged @Twins nation (and delighted @WhiteSox fans) when, in responding to a question about the AL Central, we tweeted our current win projections: Indians 71.7 Royals 74.2 Tigers 61.2 Twins 83.1 White Sox 86.9 @Twins fan outrage seemed evenly divided along two lines, being behind the @WhiteSox and the temerity of… Continue reading Outraged Twins fans and a BettorUpMLB Over/Under Update
First Look: BettorUpMLB wagers on MLB win totals
The release of the FanDuel (among others) 2021 MLB win lines allows us to compare with the BettorUpMLB win projections to identify potential wagering opportunities. Two caveats: This is an initial look. Spring training playing time decisions and the potential for injury can still impact win totals. Last season, seemingly hours after drafting Noah Syndergaard… Continue reading First Look: BettorUpMLB wagers on MLB win totals
Applying Peta’s Wagering Methodology in 2020
(This first appeared in FanGraphs Community – January 21, 2021) For those unfamiliar with Joe Peta’s groundbreaking 2013 book Trading Bases, the author is a successful financial analyst and former Wall Street trader. Seriously injured in a traffic accident, Peta’s long and painful recovery included employing his professional skills to develop a baseball wagering methodology.… Continue reading Applying Peta’s Wagering Methodology in 2020