BettorUpMLB 2021: At the quarter pole

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Every quarter (40 games) the BettorUpMLB model is updated to account for games played (adjusted for baseruns) and adjusted player WARs. Let’s look at how the Model performed in individual games in 1Q2021 and the adjusted season win totals.

Individual games:

  • Number of games modeled: 435
  • Games resulting in bets: 276 (61%)
  • Wins: 163 (59%)
  • Losses: 113 (41%)
  • ROI: 17%

Adjusted season win totals

The chart below includes the Opening Day money line (Wm Hill), the Opening Day BettorUpMLB projection and the revised win total after 40 games:

TeamWm. HillModel Opening Day1Q202Q20Dif
Blue Jays8796.486 -10.1
Braves91.599.292 -7.1
Mariners73.568.864 -4.9
Phillies82.577.673 -4.6
Yankees96100.697 -3.3
Nationals84.588.385 -2.8
Angels83.584.882 -2.7
Tigers6860.558 -2.6
Marlins72.573.871 -2.6
Diamondbacks75.572.070 -1.8
Rockies63.563.462 -1.0
Cubs7973.072 -0.7
Mets9087.187 -0.6
Padres93.592.592 -0.2
Cardinals8685.085 0.0
Astros8890.391 0.8
Royals7574.175 1.0
Dodgers103.5112.5114 1.1
Red Sox79.580.882 1.1
Twins89.583.385 1.5
Giants74.581.383 1.5
Reds80.576.179 2.7
Rangers67.572.575 2.7
Orioles63.575.178 3.1
Pirates5966.971 4.1
Indians81.572.477 4.6
Athletics87.574.579 4.8
Brewers84.578.884 4.9
Rays8683.991 7.1
White Sox89.584.493 8.2
Revised season win totals

Risers

Rays8683.991 7.1
White Sox89.584.493 8.2

In the case of the Rays, projected runs scored jumped by 51 while runs prevented was reduced by 24. The White Sox see a huge jump in runs scored (89) while the runs scored remained basically static. Though the Twins win projection increased slightly, the Model sees the White Sox now putting some distance from what was initially a tighter race.

Fallers

Blue Jays8796.486 -10.1
Braves91.599.292 -7.1

Looking behind the numbers, pitching is the main driver. The Jays runs allowed takes a dramatic jump, the team now projected to allow over 100 more runs than originally projected. The Braves drop in wins can be attributed to a small reduction in runs scored and a jump in runs allowed.  That’s good news for Mets fans.

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