About BettorUpMLB.com

Founded in 2020 by COVID bored baseball fan Bill Deere, BettorUpMLB jumps off from Joe Peta’s groundbreaking 2013 book Trading Bases. Utilizing a team’s previous season performance, adjusted by the FanGraph (FG) calculation BaseRuns, previous season FG WAR, and upcoming-season projected FG WAR, the BettorUpMLB model produces a season-long projection of team wins and the ability to handicap individual games through daily adjustments to lineups, starting pitcher, and home field.

Conservative Bankroll Management

It then employs a bankroll management approach based on the work of renowned thoroughbred handicappers like Andrew Beyer, Joe Cramer and Dick Mitchell. The BettorUpMLB model identifies and capitalizes on inefficiencies between its estimates and the moneyline with wager amounts increasing strictly in relation to the perceived advantage. 

BettorUpMLB takes a capital accrual approach to wagering on major league baseball, requiring the user to put aside the concept of favorite teams. The model is bloodless, today’s rooting interest may not be tomorrow’s and not necessarily even the team with the better chance to win.

BettorUpMLB 2021 in-season results

In 2021 BettorupMLB modeled 640 games (including playoffs). Sixty-five percent of games were considered playable, meaning there was a perceived advantage between the BettorUp model and the moneyline (typically FanDuel Sportsbook). The overall win percentage was 59%. A starting bankroll of $1,800 ended the season at $3,568.

BettorUpMLB 2020 season in-results

BettorUpMLB modeled 508 games (including playoffs) during the 2020 season. Approximately three-quarters of those games were playable, meaning there was a perceived advantage between the model’s estimate and the moneyline. The overall win percentage was 50%. A starting bankroll of $1,800 ended the season at $3,209.

2021 Season Results

Team ProjWm. HillDifBetActualResult
Blue Jays96879Over91W
Applying the BettorUp Model to 2021 Outliers