2021 MLB Total Team Wins

Home » Blog » Baseball » 2021 MLB Total Team Wins

Final bearings…Shoot!

Time to stop talking about numbers and walk up to the window.

I’ve written before about the challenges to the Peta methodology posed by applying 60-game season stats to a 162-game season. Better mathematicians than me out there (and that includes virtually everyone reading this) can put forth various legitimate ways to tinker with those 60 game stats.  But for me, similar to last season, the alternative I choose is conservative application of the results generated by the BettorUpMLB model. So, my wagers will utilize the most extreme outliers in each direction.

Recall, the BettorUpMLB model looks at 2020 team runs scored/runs allowed (as adjusted for cluster luck via FG BaseRuns) and utilizing differences between 2020 FG WAR to 2021 FG WAR projections, arrives at 2021 team win totals. To be safe, the Model looked at both inflated 2020 WARs to a 162-game season and deflated 2021 projected WARs to a 60-game season.

All numbers are measured against William Hill win totals:

Under

•          A’s:  -12.9 from Model

Athletics – FG BaseRuns saw the A’s overperform their actual 2020 record by over 10 percent. The FG 2021 WAR sees decline coming in both the A’s hitting and relief pitching. The Model had nowhere to go but down.

•          Indians: -9.4 from Model

Indians – FG BaseRuns saw the Tribe overperform their actual 2020 record by almost 10 percent. Similarly, the FG 2021 WARs are both down for starting and relief pitching.

OVER

•          Blue Jays: +9 from Model

Jays – FG BaseRuns saw the Jays underperform their 2020 stats by ten percent. The FG 2021 WARs see big increases coming in hitting and starting pitching.

•          Dodgers: +9 from Model

In 2020, the Dodgers performed exactly to their FG BaseRun stats. The 2021 FG WAR projections show a remarkably stable team, performing largely to their 2020 numbers.

•          Orioles: +10.9 from Model

In 2020, FG BaseRuns indicates the Orioles underperformed their stats by 20 percent. This seemingly offsets the teams projected FG 2021 WAR declines in both pitching categories.

Finally, there’s other interesting bet possibilities out there but I certainly wouldn’t recommend anything under a variation of 7 from the line.

TeamBettorUpMLBDraft Kings 2.19.2021FanDuel 3.1.2021Wm. HillDif w/ WH
Angels85.18483.583.51.6
Astros90.186.587.5882.1
Athletics74.687.586.587.5-12.9
Blue Jays96.086.586879.0
Braves99.391.591.591.57.8
Brewers78.582.58284.5-6.0
Cardinals85.086.58686-1.0
Cubs73.179.578.579-5.9
Diamondbacks72.074.574.575.5-3.5
Dodgers112.5101.5103.5103.59.0
Giants81.275.57574.56.7
Indians72.181.581.581.5-9.4
Mariners68.772.57373.5-4.8
Marlins74.270.571.572.51.7
Mets87.090.59190-3.0
Nationals88.584.58484.54.0
Orioles74.464.563.563.510.9
Padres93.394.594.593.5-0.2
Phillies77.780.581.582.5-4.8
Pirates66.659.558.5597.6
Rangers72.666.567.567.55.1
Rays84.285.58686-1.8
Red Sox80.680.579.579.51.1
Reds76.382.581.580.5-4.2
Rockies63.264.56563.5-0.3
Royals74.472.573.575-0.6
Tigers60.468.567.568-7.6
Twins83.488.589.589.5-6.1
White Sox84.391.590.589.5-5.2
Yankees100.595.595.5964.5
 243024302429.52436-6.0

11,127 comments

  1. Pingback: A Peta Perspective on the Hot Stove…So Far - BETTORUPMLB.COM

  280. Currently it sounds like Movable Type is the preferred blogging platform
    available right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you’re using
    on your blog?

    Reply

  281. Hi there to all, the contents present at this website are genuinely remarkable for people
    experience, well, keep up the nice work fellows.

    Reply

  282. Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all people you actually understand what you’re speaking about!
    Bookmarked. Kindly additionally discuss with my web site =).
    We could have a hyperlink trade arrangement between us

    Reply

  283. Have you ever thought about writing an ebook or guest authoring
    on other sites? I have a blog centered on the same
    subjects you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my audience would value your work.
    If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.

    Reply

  286. I’ve read a few just right stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking
    for revisiting. I surprise how a lot attempt you place to make such a fantastic informative
    web site.

    Reply

  287. Thank you for the good writeup. It actually used to be
    a leisure account it. Glance complex to far introduced agreeable from you!
    However, how can we keep up a correspondence?

    Reply

  288. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and
    was wondering what all is required to get set up?
    I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
    I’m not very internet smart so I’m not 100% sure.

    Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Appreciate it

    Reply

  290. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I
    found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed.
    There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants
    to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to
    tell someone!

    Reply

  292. Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles?
    I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. However imagine if you added some great photos or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”!

    Your content is excellent but with pics and clips, this website could certainly be one of the very best in its niche.

    Very good blog!

    Reply

  294. Greetings from Idaho! I’m bored to death at work so I decided to check
    out your site on my iphone during lunch break. I really like the info you provide here and can’t wait to take a look
    when I get home. I’m surprised at how fast your blog loaded on my cell phone ..
    I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, great blog!

    Reply

  295. Hello! I realize this is sort of off-topic however I needed to ask.
    Does running a well-established website like yours take a massive amount work?
    I’m brand new to operating a blog however I do write in my diary daily.
    I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience and views
    online. Please let me know if you have any
    suggestions or tips for new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

    Reply

  296. I know this web page gives quality depending articles
    or reviews and other information, is there any other web page which offers these kinds of things in quality?

    Reply

  297. It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d without a doubt donate to this fantastic blog!
    I suppose for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google
    account. I look forward to brand new updates and will talk
    about this blog with my Facebook group. Talk soon!

    Reply

  298. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was
    wondering what all is required to get setup?
    I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
    I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% positive. Any suggestions or advice
    would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

    Reply

  300. Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all folks you really recognize what you are speaking
    approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly additionally seek advice
    from my web site =). We may have a hyperlink exchange arrangement between us help refuges

    Reply

  302. Greetings from Carolina! I’m bored at work so I decided to browse your website on my iphone during
    lunch break. I enjoy the knowledge you provide here and
    can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m shocked at how fast your blog loaded on my phone ..

    I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, great blog!

    Reply

  303. I like what you guys tend to be up too. This
    kind of clever work and reporting! Keep up the good works guys
    I’ve added you guys to our blogroll.

    Reply

  304. I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this blog.
    I really hope to view the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well.
    In fact, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to
    get my own, personal blog now 😉

    Reply

  306. Hi, I do think this is a great website. I stumbledupon it ;
    ) I’m going to come back once again since i have bookmarked it.
    Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich
    and continue to guide other people.

    Reply

  316. You can definitely see your enthusiasm in the work you write.

    The sector hopes for more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to say how
    they believe. Always go after your heart.

    Reply

  349. fantastic submit, very informative. I ponder why the opposite specialists of this sector do not notice this. You must continue your writing. I am sure, you have a huge readers’ base already!

    Reply

  379. Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some
    advice from an established blog. Is it difficult to set up your
    own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast.
    I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not
    sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions?
    Thanks

    Reply

  383. you are actually a just right webmaster. The web site loading velocity is incredible.

    It seems that you’re doing any distinctive trick. In addition, The contents
    are masterwork. you’ve performed a wonderful task on this subject!

    Reply

  420. great points altogether, you simply won a logo new reader.
    What might you suggest in regards to your put up that you made some days in the past?
    Any positive?

    Reply

  486. Just wish to say your article is as astounding.
    The clearness in your post is just excellent and i can assume you are an expert on this subject.
    Fine with your permission allow me to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post.
    Thanks a million and please continue the rewarding work.

    Reply

  498. Good day I am so grateful I found your web site, I really found you by error, while I was researching
    on Google for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to
    say thanks a lot for a incredible post and a all round entertaining blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to
    go through it all at the minute but I have bookmarked it and also included your RSS
    feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the fantastic b.

    Reply

  570. Good day! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you
    using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform.

    I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

    Reply

  581. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the structure of
    your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
    But maybe you could a little more in the way of
    content so people could connect with it better.
    Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2
    pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

    Reply

  591. We stumbled over here coming from a different web address and thought I might
    as well check things out. I like what I see so now i am following you.
    Look forward to going over your web page again.

    Reply

  611. I got this site from my pal who told me on the topic of this
    web page and now this time I am visiting this web site and reading very informative articles or reviews here.

    Reply