Time to stop talking about numbers and walk up to the window.
I’ve written before about the challenges to the Peta methodology posed by applying 60-game season stats to a 162-game season. Better mathematicians than me out there (and that includes virtually everyone reading this) can put forth various legitimate ways to tinker with those 60 game stats. But for me, similar to last season, the alternative I choose is conservative application of the results generated by the BettorUpMLB model. So, my wagers will utilize the most extreme outliers in each direction.
Recall, the BettorUpMLB model looks at 2020 team runs scored/runs allowed (as adjusted for cluster luck via FG BaseRuns) and utilizing differences between 2020 FG WAR to 2021 FG WAR projections, arrives at 2021 team win totals. To be safe, the Model looked at both inflated 2020 WARs to a 162-game season and deflated 2021 projected WARs to a 60-game season.
All numbers are measured against William Hill win totals:
• A’s: -12.9 from Model
Athletics – FG BaseRuns saw the A’s overperform their actual 2020 record by over 10 percent. The FG 2021 WAR sees decline coming in both the A’s hitting and relief pitching. The Model had nowhere to go but down.
• Indians: -9.4 from Model
Indians – FG BaseRuns saw the Tribe overperform their actual 2020 record by almost 10 percent. Similarly, the FG 2021 WARs are both down for starting and relief pitching.
• Blue Jays: +9 from Model
Jays – FG BaseRuns saw the Jays underperform their 2020 stats by ten percent. The FG 2021 WARs see big increases coming in hitting and starting pitching.
• Dodgers: +9 from Model
In 2020, the Dodgers performed exactly to their FG BaseRun stats. The 2021 FG WAR projections show a remarkably stable team, performing largely to their 2020 numbers.
• Orioles: +10.9 from Model
In 2020, FG BaseRuns indicates the Orioles underperformed their stats by 20 percent. This seemingly offsets the teams projected FG 2021 WAR declines in both pitching categories.
Finally, there’s other interesting bet possibilities out there but I certainly wouldn’t recommend anything under a variation of 7 from the line.
|Team||BettorUpMLB||Draft Kings 2.19.2021||FanDuel 3.1.2021||Wm. Hill||Dif w/ WH|