2021 Hot Stove: Risers and fallers

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As spring training is poised to really get going, let’s look at how each team fared during free agency.

Baseline December 2020

Establishing the baseline at December 9, 2020; BettorUpMLB compared each team at two points in the Hot Stove: January 30th and February 20, 2021:

Team1.30.20212.20.21
Yankees9.48.8
Phillies4.84.3
Blue Jays4.74.1
Padres4.33.9
Dodgers0.13.1
Cardinals-1.82.4
Twins1.22.4
Mets3.02.0
Nationals2.92.0
Mariners1.21.3
Braves-0.91.2
White Sox1.50.9
Rangers-0.90.9
Astros1.40.8
Red Sox1.80.5
Tigers-0.70.4
Royals-0.30.2
Brewers-1.3-0.8
Marlins-1.3-0.8
Diamondbacks-1.2-1.2
Giants-0.4-1.4
Orioles0.3-1.8
Rays-2.3-2.4
Rockies-0.4-2.6
Athletics-0.9-2.7
Angels-0.9-2.9
Cubs-4.5-3.4
Reds-3.7-3.9
Indians-5.6-6.3
Pirates-9.4-8.9

Risers

The Yankees improved themselves most in Hot Stove, by almost nine games. The Phillies, through resigning two stars and adding some bullpen arms, added four wins though it remains to be seen whether that is enough to pass the Mets or Nationals, neither of whom were idle. Finally, we see the Blue Jays and Padres each adding significant talent in their quests to keep pace with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Fallers

The fire sales in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Chicago downgraded their 2020 seasons to reload for the future. The Reds (through February 20) have taken a step backward, undercutting a potential challenge to the Cardinals for the NL Central.

There are only so many wins

It’s not hard to look at the snapshot dates and identify the team’s major trades/signings. The BettorUpMLB model though is based on distributing 2430 wins (81*30), as a result it produces an arc in team wins. A team’s trades/signings add to team WAR and hence wins, but it does not occur in a vacuum.  Across the chart one sees the impacts as other teams makes trades and sign free agents, tts effect to redistribute a finite number of wins.

Coming soon: BettorUpMLB’s win projections versus the sportsbook’s lines.

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